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The Impact of Electoral Cycle Occurrence on Macroeconomic Environment: Case Study of Iran (in Persian)

Author

Listed:
  • Amiri, Hossein

    (Assistant Professor Department of Economics and Islamic Banking, Faculty of Economics, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran,)

  • Samadian, Farzaneh

    (M.A. in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Allameh Tabataba'i, Tehran, Iran.)

Abstract

The Political business cycle theory is one of the controversial topics in modern economic theory. The political business cycle, as a political factor, influences the trends of economic variables. According to economic theories, the economic policy adopted by government before election, is an expansionary one, leading to lower taxes and unemployment; it also increases consumption per capita, GDP, and the subsidies granted by the government. However, after each election, the government adopts a restrictive policy. This paper introduces the major models used to describe and analyze political and economic cycles. Moreover, Iran's political cycles and their impact on economic development are analyzed based on the BVAR model for the period 1979-2015. According to the analysis, it is concluded that the economic variables, particularly inflation and exchange rate, are under the influence of political decisions, specifically during the election period.

Suggested Citation

  • Amiri, Hossein & Samadian, Farzaneh, 2020. "The Impact of Electoral Cycle Occurrence on Macroeconomic Environment: Case Study of Iran (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی Ùˆ بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 25(2), pages 3-24, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:auv:jipbud:v:25:y:2020:i:2:p:3-24
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Election Period; Macro-economics Indicators; Economic Growth Rate; Unemployment Rate; Inflation; Exchange Rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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