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Determinants of Government’s Budget Deficit in Iran: 1989-2015 (in Persian)

Author

Listed:
  • Mowlaei, Mohammad

    (Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University)

  • Abdian, Marziyeh

    (Department of Economics, Bu-Ali Sina University.)

Abstract

The public budget is an official manuscript forecasting the economy for a short period (one year), and its proper execution can be viewed as an index of economic success for the government. The governments are generally unable to execute the balanced budget and in order to finance current and infrastructure expenditure, they will face budget deficit. The purpose of this research is to explore the determinants of budget deficit during the five economic plans (1989-2015). Accordingly, using Johansen-Juselius Co-integration and ARDL approach, the effects of tax incomes, oil incomes, government expenditure, the rate of economic growth and the rate of inflation on the budget deficit are estimated. The results show that the budget deficit has a significant and negative relationship with tax incomes, oil incomes and economic growth rate; whereas it has a significant and positive relationship with government expenditures and the inflation rate. Moreover, oil revenues have the largest impact on the public budget deficit, while the economic growth rate has the least impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Mowlaei, Mohammad & Abdian, Marziyeh, 2018. "Determinants of Government’s Budget Deficit in Iran: 1989-2015 (in Persian)," The Journal of Planning and Budgeting (٠صلنامه برنامه ریزی Ùˆ بودجه), Institute for Management and Planning studies, vol. 23(1), pages 59-78, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:auv:jipbud:v:23:y:2018:i:1:p:59-78
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARDL Model; Budget Deficit; Oil Income; Tax Income; Economic Growth; Inflationary Rate.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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