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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Prices: A Case Study of Middle East Countries

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  • Nagmi Moftah Aimer

Abstract

The exchange rate is not only a determinant of economic activity but also a factor affecting the performance of stock market. In other words, the exchange rate volatility makes an impact on the stock market of any economy. This study has attempted to determine the relationship between exchange rate and stock prices of Middle East countries, using the GARCH model for the period Jan-2004 to Apr-2018, to make an econometric analysis. In this context, various time series analysis and Granger causality test were applied. Results of analyses show a strong evidence of causation running from exchange rate to stock prices; implying several variations such as Dubai stock prices experienced exchange rate volatility while the Saudi stock market witnessed a unidirectional relationship running from stock prices to exchange rate implying that variations the Saudi exchange rate determines the stock prices volatility. Finally, in the Egyptian stock market, no relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices was witnessed which means that changes in Egyptian stock prices cannot be explained by the volatility in the exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2019. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Prices: A Case Study of Middle East Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 98-110.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:adprev:v:7:y:2019:i:2:p:98-110:id:233
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    Cited by:

    1. Armida Amado & Looi Mun Choon, 2020. "Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Stock Market: An Empirical Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 24-31.
    2. Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2019. "The Long Run Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Growth: The Case of Libya," International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(2), pages 232-242, June.

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