Instability in Rice Production in Gujarat: A Decomposition Analysis

Rice is the most important and extensively grown food crop in India and is the staple food for more than half of the world population. In India, Gujarat ranks 15th in terms of area and production and 9th in productivity (2011). The scope for expanding rice production lies in enhancing productivity. The growth rates of rice area, production and productivity during 1982-83 to 2011-12 were 0.41, 1.25 and 0.83 percent per annum respectively. The growth estimate from last 30 years data shows that negligible increase was recorded in area and production of rice. Presently the yield level of rice in the state is comparatively low from national average need to be increased substantially. The magnitude of instability in area and production of rice has been higher in all the selected districts compared to state. Variability in production has been at a higher rate compared to area and productivity variability in this crop. The area-yield co-variance had a stabilizing effect on reduction of instability in rice production It can be inferred that the wide fluctuation in production of rice crop have been due to the high variability in its productivity. The future development programmes should envisage on increase of yield for bringing stabilization in production of the crop. The area instability also needs to be reduced. This could be reduced by more investment on research for rice production technology in the state.