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Learning and Macroeconomics

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Author Info

  • George W. Evans
  • Seppo Honkapohja

    () (Department of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403-1285, and School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, KY16 9AL Scotland, Bank of Finland, PO Box 160, FI00101 Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning approach provides a stability test for rational expectations and a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria. In addition, learning provides new dynamics if older data are discounted, if models are misspecified, or if agents choose between competing models. This paper describes the expectational stability (E-stability) principle and the stochastic approximation tools used to assess equilibria under learning. Applications of learning to a number of areas are reviewed, including the design of monetary and fiscal policy, business cycles, self-fulfilling prophecies, hyperinflation, liquidity traps, and asset prices.

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File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.142927
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Annual Reviews in its journal Annual Review of Economics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (05)
Pages: 421-451

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Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:1:y:2009:p:421-451

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Related research

Keywords: E-stability; stochastic approximation; persistent learning dynamics; business cycles; monetary policy; asset prices;

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Learning in macroeconomics...
    by Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance on 2011-10-14 14:01:00
  2. Crazy economic models
    by Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance on 2011-10-11 13:27:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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Cited by:
  1. George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R, 2012. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Learning in a New Keynesian Model with Cost Channel and Inflation Inertia," Working Paper Series 2012:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  3. Mostafavi, Moeen & Shakouri G., Hamed & Fatehi, Ali-Reza, 2010. "Why the determinacy condition is a weak criterion in rational expectations models," MPRA Paper 28320, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 2002. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to complex dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  5. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Martin ZUMPE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Modelling Social Learning in an Agent-Based New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-20, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.
  6. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2003. "Bifurcation Routes to Volatility Clustering under Evolutionary Learning," CeNDEF Working Papers 03-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  7. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Heterogeneous beliefs and and routes to complez dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  8. Jasmina Arifovic & James B. Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2007. "Social learning and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2007-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. George W. Evans, 2011. "Comment on "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 61-71 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2012. "Imperfect Information, Optimal Monetary Policy and Informational Consistency," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1012, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  11. Michele Berardi & Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2012. "On the initialization of adaptive learning algorithms: A review of methods and a new smoothing-based routine," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 175, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.

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