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Uncertainty in Population Forecasts for the Twenty-First Century

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  • Nico Keilman

Abstract

The aim of this article is to review a number of issues related to uncertain population forecasts, with a focus on world population. Why are these forecasts uncertain? Population forecasters traditionally follow two approaches when dealing with this uncertainty, namely scenarios (forecast variants) and probabilistic forecasts. Early probabilistic population forecast models were based upon a frequentist approach, whereas current ones are of the Bayesian type. I evaluate the scenario approach versus the probabilistic approach and conclude that the latter is preferred. Finally, forecasts of resources need not only population input, but also input on future numbers of households. While methods for computing probabilistic country-specific household forecasts have been known for some time, how to compute such forecasts for the whole world is yet an unexplored issue.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Keilman, 2020. "Uncertainty in Population Forecasts for the Twenty-First Century," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 449-470, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:12:y:2020:p:449-470
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-110319-114841
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeromey Temple & Tom Wilson & Bianca Brijnath & Ariane Utomo & Peter McDonald, 2022. "English Language Proficiency Among Older Migrants in Australia, 2016–2046," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 403-429, June.
    2. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.

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