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A Survey of Alternative Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Which Measures Forecast Real Variables and Explain Fluctuations in Asset Volatilities Better?

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander David

    (Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada)

  • Pietro Veronesi

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA)

Abstract

In the past 20 years, measures of economic uncertainty have been developed that are purely market price based; structural model based, using data on real fundamentals and asset prices; text based; or survey based. We compare the performance of these uncertainty measures in forecasting three real variables with irreversibilities—investment, hiring, and credit creation—as well as in explaining fluctuations in stock market and Treasury bond market volatility. In general, we find that structural model–based measures do better than measures constructed using other approaches, with a model of stock market volatility by David and Veronesi performing the best on several (but not all) dimensions. Their learning-based model's volatility places time-varying weights on inflation, earnings, and consumption news, as agents in the economy assess the impact that inflation has on the stability of real economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2022. "A Survey of Alternative Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Which Measures Forecast Real Variables and Explain Fluctuations in Asset Volatilities Better?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 439-463, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:refeco:v:14:y:2022:p:439-463
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-financial-111720-091804
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; growth; inflation; irreversibility; learning; uncertainty; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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