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Identificando Bolhas Especulativas Racionais no IBOVESPA (Pós-Plano Real), a partir de Regimes Markovianos de Conversão

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Author Info

  • Diógenes Manoel Leiva Martin

    (Mackenzie)

  • Eduardo Kazuo Kayo

    (Mackenzie)

  • Herbert Kimura

    (Mackenzie)

  • Wilson Toshiro Nakamura

    (Mackenzie)

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    Abstract

    The present article intend to verify the presence of speculative rational bubbles, starting from the identification of switching regime of the returns generation process in the brazilian market exchange, BOVESPA, for the Plano Real period (July of 1994 to March of 2004). In order to achieve this end, it was used of the model of markovian switching regime that allows to verify the nonlinear structure of the data and it is relation to the conditional mean and conditional variance. As result the dynamics of the data generation process, the returns can be described as function of two regimes (“bull markets” and “bear markets”). These cycles, however, they could be decomposed in other cycles, initial and final phases of the growth cycle (“bull”) and decrease (“bear”). This decomposition was shown more coherent with the concept of speculative bubble, in which there is a nonlinear relationship between the price and their foundations

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 219-252

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    Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:5:y:2004:i:3:p:219-252

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    Related research

    Keywords: Bolha Especulativa Racional; Regimes Markovianos de Conversão; Não Linearidades; Eficiência de Mercado;

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