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A Persistência das Flutuações no Produto: Uma Análise Secular do Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro

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Author Info

  • Cleomar Gomes da Silva

    (Universidade Federal de Uberlândia (IE-UFU) e Secretaria de Política Econômica do Ministério da Fazenda (SPE/MF))

  • Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes

    (FUCAPE Business School, Brasil)

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    Abstract

    Este artigo estuda a persistência das flutuações do crescimento econômico brasileiro com dados anuais de 1900 a 2008. Para a análise das séries são usados modelos ARFIMA e testes de raiz unitária com quebras estruturais. Os resultados indicam que ambos PIB e PIB per capita brasileiros apresentam alto grau de persistência. Na decomposição tendência-ciclo, percebe-se que a tendência de longo prazo do PIB per capita estagna-se no começo do século 20 e na década de 1980, com reversão somente nos anos 2000. Já o PIB mostra crescimento menos errático, apenas destacando a intensificação no período do Milagre e a estagnação na década de 1980..

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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol12/vol12n3p383_406.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 383_406

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    Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:12:y:2011:i:3:383_406

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    Related research

    Keywords: Modelos de Memória Longa; Crescimento Econômico; Séries Temporais;

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