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Taxa de Câmbio e a Balança Comercial Brasileira de Manufaturados: Evidências da J-Curve

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Author Info

  • Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    (Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil)

  • Paulo Roberto Scalco

    (Universidade Federal de Goiás, Brasil)

  • Antonio Carvalho Campos

    (Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), Brasil)

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    Abstract

    Uma forma de investigação dos efeitos do curto e de longo prazo de uma depreciação cambial sobre o saldo da balança comercial é considerar dados agregados de comércio entre o país e o resto do mundo. Este estudo se propõe a analisar 21 setores da balança comercial de manufaturados brasileira no período de 1994/2007, a fim de evidenciar a existência do efeito de Curva J nestes setores. Para tal, utilizou-se a abordagem de co-integração multivariado de Johansen para estimar os efeitos da taxa de câmbio sobre a balança comercial. Os resultados apontam a existência de Curva J em apenas 2 dos 21 setores e, em 6 setores não se registram os efeitos de curto prazo, embora o saldo comercial responda positivamente no longo prazo a choques de depreciação cambial.

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    File URL: http://www.anpec.org.br/revista/vol11/vol11n3p711_734.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its journal Economia.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 711_734

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    Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:11:y:2010:i:3:711_734

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    Related research

    Keywords: Balança Comercial de Manufaturados; Curva J; Taxa de Câmbio;

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