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Time Series Analysis and Forecasting For Air Pollution In Ankara: A Box-Jenkins Approach

Author

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  • Duygu Turgut
  • İzzettin Temiz

Abstract

Despite the existing public and government measures for monitoring and controling of air quality in Ankara, in many regions, air quality is not satisfactory. In this paper, PM10 data obtained from Monitoring and controlling of air quality station of Environment and Urban Ministry in Ankara-Sıhhiye. PM10 is a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets suspended in the atmosphere, which is an abbreviation of particulate matter. This representation contains many pollutants, such as fossil fuels, waste and secondary aerosols, dust and smoke. PM10 leads to many health problems including asthmaand premature death.Time series analysis was implemented to the PM10 data by using Box-Jenkins Methodology and the potential future value of PM10 was forecasted consequently in the future PM10 values will be as high as the past values in Sıhhiye, Ankara.

Suggested Citation

  • Duygu Turgut & İzzettin Temiz, 2015. "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting For Air Pollution In Ankara: A Box-Jenkins Approach," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 3(2), pages 131-138, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:anm:alpnmr:v:3:y:2015:i:2:p:131-138
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/aj.2015.3.2.5000148347
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; Air Pollution; Box-Jenkins; PM10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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