IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/and/journl/v13y2013i2p1-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Twin Deficits Relationship Affect The Leading Indicators Of Crisis? Analysis Of The Us And Turkey In Light Of The 2008 Global Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Tulin Tunc Deveci
  • Suleyman Degirmen

    (Ankara University
    Mersin University)

Abstract

Many theoretical and empirical researches have been written on the issue of crises often experienced by developing countries since the early 1990s. Moreover, the 2007 crisis started in the US has taken its place as a global crisis in the literature because of the most spreading crisis over the World since the 1929 Great Depression, and also experienced by a developed and powerful country. Crises have been predicted by advanced early warning systems according to movements in some macroeconomic variables. Unfortunately, that financial crisis mostly attached to speculative activities has complicated its prediction. In this paper, the relationship of twin deficits with crisis for the US and Turkey is analyzed by cointegration and granger causality tests along with computed speculative pressure index, in shed of the 2008 Global Crisis. Finally, it has been reached to uncertain results for Tukey while twin deficits is certainly effective for the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tulin Tunc Deveci & Suleyman Degirmen, 2013. "Does Twin Deficits Relationship Affect The Leading Indicators Of Crisis? Analysis Of The Us And Turkey In Light Of The 2008 Global Crisis," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:and:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:2:p:1-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.anadolu.edu.tr/arastirma/hakemli_dergiler/sosyal_bilimler/pdf/2013_2/2013-02-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crises; Leading Indicators; Twin Deficits; Cointegration and Granger Causality Tests.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:and:journl:v:13:y:2013:i:2:p:1-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Social Sciences Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iianatr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.