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A Predictive Study of Electricity Consumption Fluctuations Using the Autoregressive-Moving-Average Models: Wilaya of Medea as a Case Study (2011-2017)

Author

Listed:
  • Chermat Tahar

    (Akli Mohand Oulhaj University, Bouira (Algeria))

  • Bouaichaoui Youcef

    (Akli Mohand Oulhaj University, Bouira (Algeria))

Abstract

The study aims to model the consumption of electricity in the Wilaya 'Town' of Medea by using the autoregressive-moving-average models for the period from January 2011 to December 2017, which includes 84 views and then the prediction of consumption in a short term, the study found that the electricity consumed follows the model (4.0) ASARMA. In a form of a multiplicative model of Increasing general trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Chermat Tahar & Bouaichaoui Youcef, 2019. "A Predictive Study of Electricity Consumption Fluctuations Using the Autoregressive-Moving-Average Models: Wilaya of Medea as a Case Study (2011-2017)," Management & Economics Research Journal, Faculty of Economics, Commercial and Management Sciences, Ziane Achour University of Djelfa, vol. 1(1), pages 190-211, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:alv:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:1:p:190-211
    DOI: 10.48100/merj.v1i1.23
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity Consumption; Autoregressive Models; Moving-Average Models; Short Term Prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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