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Assessing the Sustainability of Regional Foreign Trade Complex (the Case of Germany’s Industrial Region – North Rhine-Westphalia)

Author

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  • Andrei Olegovich SOBOLEV

    (Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in Germany, Berlin, Germany,)

Abstract

Until last year, the growth of the German economy was largely based on the use of Russian energy resources. At the same time, Western sanctions have severely restricted foreign trade with the Russian Federation. This paper analyzes the sustainability and adaptation potential of foreign trade in North Rhine-Westphalia as one of the most industrialized regions of Germany using vector autoregression model. The results of the study show that the key factors affecting the foreign trade activity of North Rhine-Westphalia are manufacturing shipments and fixed capital investment as well as labour force for the import variable. The modelling results reveal that this region was highly dependent on Russian energy resources, and a complete refusal to import them could lead to long-term economic consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrei Olegovich SOBOLEV, 2024. "Assessing the Sustainability of Regional Foreign Trade Complex (the Case of Germany’s Industrial Region – North Rhine-Westphalia)," Russian Foreign Economic Journal, Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation, issue 4, pages 7-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:alq:rufejo:rfej_2024_04_7-20
    DOI: 10.24412/2072-8042-2024-2-7-20
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign trade; sustainability; adaptive potential; exports; imports; modelling; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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