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Use of Cues in Forecasting Tasks: Evidence from Sport Predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Norbert Becser

    (Institute of Business Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary)

  • Bálint Esse

    (Institute of Business Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary)

  • Richárd Szántó

    (Institute of Business Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract

We asked Hungarian students to make soccer forecasts for a round of the Chilean Primera División, which was selected to minimise recognition heuristics, as this league is not followed by Hungarian soccer fans. Students made their forecasts based on cues about the teams. They received sets of cues of different quality based on previously composed expert evaluations of the given information. Although there were interesting findings regarding expertise and gender differences, the central question concerned how students evaluated the cues they received. Results show a pattern that we interpret as the contrast effect in information sets, which is present independent of gender or expertise.

Suggested Citation

  • Norbert Becser & Bálint Esse & Richárd Szántó, 2018. "Use of Cues in Forecasting Tasks: Evidence from Sport Predictions," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 40(4), pages 587-603, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:40:y:2018:i:4:p:587-603
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sports forecasting; cue value; gender differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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