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Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games

Author

Listed:
  • Gergely Csurilla

    (Sport Economics and Decision-Making Research Centre, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Alkotás u. 44, H-1123, Hungary
    Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences Centre of Excellence, Budapest, Hungary)

  • András Gyimesi

    (Doctoral School of Regional Policy and Economics, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary)

  • Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás

    (Sport Economics and Decision-Making Research Centre, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Alkotás u. 44, H-1123, Hungary)

  • Tamás Sterbenz

    (Sport Economics and Decision-Making Research Centre, University of Physical Education, Budapest, Alkotás u. 44, H-1123, Hungary)

Abstract

We describe a statistical approach for the measurement of the newly defined luck-based noise factor in sports. It is defined as the difference between the actual outcome and the expected outcome based on the model predictions. We raise the question whether some sports exhibit a higher level of noise-factor than others, making investments in that sport riskier. Data from 14 individual sports in six Summer Olympic Games between 1996 and 2016 were included in the analysis. Market shares are predicted by the autoregressive linear and zero-inflated beta regression models with exogenous variables, where the higher Normalized Mean Squared Error indicates a higher noise-factor. Modern pentathlon, tennis and cycling showed the highest noise-factors, whereas swimming, table tennis and athletics were the least noisy. Possible reasons are discussed in the paper. Our analysis indicates that countries with suitable resources producing leading elite Olympic athletes are predicted to achieve higher success in sports with a lower noise-factor such as swimming. In contrast, investments in noisy sports, such as e.g., modern pentathlon, are associated with a higher risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Gergely Csurilla & András Gyimesi & Erika Kendelényi-Gulyás & Tamás Sterbenz, 2021. "Where is victory most certain? The level of luck-based noise factor in Summer Olympic Games," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 71(3), pages 369-386, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:71:y:2021:i:3:p:369-386
    DOI: 10.1556/032.2021.00018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Csató, László & Petróczy, Dóra Gréta, 2022. "Hogyan számszerűsíthető az ösztönzéskompatibilitás? Esettanulmány a sport világából [Quantifying incentive compatibility: a case study from the world of sports]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 841-852.
    2. Gergely Csurilla & Zoltán Boros & Diána Ivett Fűrész & András Gyimesi & Markus Raab & Tamás Sterbenz, 2023. "How Much Is Winning a Matter of Luck? A Comparison of 3 × 3 and 5v5 Basketball," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-14, February.
    3. Csató, László & Bodnár, Gergely, 2023. "Mérhetnénk jobban a csapatok erejét a Bajnokok Ligájában? Fontos megjegyzés az Európai Labdarúgó-szövetség számára [How to better measure team strength in the Champions League. An important message," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 813-827.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sports economics; olympic games; luck-based noise factor; market share; zero-inflated beta regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z29 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Other

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