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Economic growth and real exchange rate misalignments in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Judit Krekó

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Tóth Kálmán u. 4, H-1097, Budapest, Hungary)

  • Gábor Oblath

    (Central European University, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate (RER) misalignments within the European Union (EU) during the period of 1995–2016. In addition to the relative price level of GDP, we quantify an alternative indicator for the RER: the internal relative price of services to goods. We interpret RER misalignments as deviations from the levels consistent with the levels of economic development among the EU countries. Using pooled OLS and dynamic panel techniques, we find that within the EU over- (under-) valuations are associated with lower (higher) growth. This is mainly due to developments in the countries operating under the fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results indicate that the level of development does not influence the strength of the growth-misalignment relationship within the EU. Regarding the price level of GDP, we find that the positive relationship between undervaluation and growth diminishes with the degree of undervaluation. We find that overvaluation has a statistically significant negative effect on export market shares and private investments, indicating that both the competitiveness and the investment channels play a role in the relationship between growth and RER misalignments. As an extension, we show that the effects of “wage misalignments” from levels consistent with productivity are also negatively related to economic growth. The policy implications of the analysis point to the importance of a growth strategy avoiding overvaluation on the one hand, and to the futility of aiming at excessive undervaluation, on the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Judit Krekó & Gábor Oblath, 2020. "Economic growth and real exchange rate misalignments in the European Union," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 70(3), pages 297-332, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:70:y:2020:i:3:p:297-332
    DOI: 10.1556/032.2020.00016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 764-786.
    2. Michael Takudzwa Pasara & Vincent Mugwira, 2023. "Exchange Rate (MIS-) Alignment: An Application of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (beer) Approach to Zimbabwe (1990-2018)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 128-141, September.
    3. Soós, Károly Attila, 2021. "Az optimális valutaövezet két elmélete - aszimmetrikus sokkok és nemzetközi pénzügyi integráció [Principles of optimal currency areas: asymmetric shocks and international financial integration]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1250-1275.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real economic and price level convergence; internal relative prices; exchange rate misalignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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