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Modelling probability of default and optimal PTI level by using a household survey

Author

Listed:
  • Tamás Balás

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), Hungary.)

  • Ádám Banai

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), Hungary)

  • Zsuzsanna Hosszú

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB), Hungary)

Abstract

The risks of household lending are still a major issue in Hungarian banking. The proportion of non-performing loans is rising continuously. We constructed a model to find those factors which have significant effect on the probability of default of households’ mortgages. We also used this model to calibrate the optimal level of household mortgages’ payment-to-income ratios, which is important from a regulatory point of view. Our results show that the denomination of the loan and the indebtedness of the household are crucial factors in the performance of the loan. We also show that loans contracted via agents are riskier than others. The results carry two important messages from a regulatory perspective. Prescribing the same payment-to-income (PTI) ratios for HUF and FX loans may be unnecessarily restrictive for the former and excessively permissive for the latter. The uniform regulation of households with different income levels may also lead to undesired anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamás Balás & Ádám Banai & Zsuzsanna Hosszú, 2015. "Modelling probability of default and optimal PTI level by using a household survey," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 65(2), pages 183-209, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aka:aoecon:v:65:y:2015:i:2:p:183-209
    Note: We are grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erlend Nier & Radu Popa & Maral Shamloo & Liviu Voinea, 2019. "Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/182, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FX lending; probability of default; payment-to-income ratio; bank regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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