IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aic/revebs/y2019j23sprinceann.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early Warning Indicators For Macrofinancial Activity In Romania

Author

Listed:
  • NICU SPRINCEAN

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași)

Abstract

Overheating of economic and financial activities leads to macrofinancial imbalances that may disrupt financial stability, and can be detected by studying relevant indcators. In this study we developed an aggregate early warning index of macrofinancial activity for Romania over the 1998q1-2020q4 period, employing data from six categories: (i) macroeconomic risks, (ii) bank risks, (iii) activity of corporations and households, (iv) monetary and financial conditions, (v) risk appetite and (vi) external shocks. We determine the utility of these variables from two perspectives: (i) whether these indicators are able to detect overheating of macrofinancial activity in Romania in two periods characterized by systemic crises and (ii) whether these variables successfully minimize various statistical errors involved in forecasting future events. Comparing the evolution of our index with a series of indicators that measure investors’ perception of macrofinancial stability or the probability of default of Romanian economy, we note the positive correlation between these two, but our index exhibits a more pronounced early warning component, making it extremely useful in anticipating future systemic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicu Sprincean, 2019. "Early Warning Indicators For Macrofinancial Activity In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 23, pages 137-162, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:revebs:y:2019:j:23:sprinceann
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rebs.feaa.uaic.ro/articles/pdfs/269.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early Warning Indicator; Systemic crisis; Macrofinancial vulnerabilities.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aic:revebs:y:2019:j:23:sprinceann. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sireteanu Napoleon-Alexandru (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feaicro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.