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Interdependence And Forecasting Of S&P500, Oil, Euro / Dollar And 10-Year U.S. Interest Rate Markets: An Attempt Of Modelling Through The Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed KSAIER

    (University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis, France)

  • Isabelle CRISTIANI-D’ORNANO

    (University of Nice Sophia-Antipolis, France)

Abstract

We observe from the late 1990s an increasing phenomenon of volatility on these following markets: Oil (WTI price), Foreign Exchange (nominal Euro/Dollar), Stock Market (S&P 500 Index) and Bond market (U.S.10-Year). After seizing the concept of volatility and overcoming its first definition of risk measure, we have evaluated their interdependencies from a VAR model, we have investigated the presence of long memory phenomenon in these series and we have carried out their forecasted trajectories from FIGARCH model. This paper is presented as follows: Section 1 opens on a definition of the volatility, Section 2 examines the interdependence of the studied markets; Section 3 provides a FIGARCH model in order to capture the dynamics and predict future market volatilities changes and Section 4 concludes."

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed KSAIER & Isabelle CRISTIANI-D’ORNANO, 2010. "Interdependence And Forecasting Of S&P500, Oil, Euro / Dollar And 10-Year U.S. Interest Rate Markets: An Attempt Of Modelling Through The Volatility," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 6, pages 145-166, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aic:revebs:y:2010:i:6:ksaiera
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Long Memory; FIGARCH; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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