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Bonds duration and COVID-19: A study on United Kingdom conventional gilts

Author

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  • Riffat Abdul Latif Mughal

    (Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology Karachi-Pakistan)

Abstract

This article studies whether the government bonds portfolio developed based on bonds duration produces abnormal returns in London Stock Exchange fixed income market during the phase of double-dip recession and COVID-19. The sample consists of UK conventional gilts traded from February 2004 till February 2021. The daily data is obtained from Thomson Reuters / Refinitiv Eikon. For this study, the data is divided into two subsamples July 2009-December 2018 and December 2019-February 2021. The findings reveal that all the bonds produced abnormal returns during the complete sample and sub-sample period when returns of UK gilts 1 year maturity are kept as a proxy for risk-free and 50-year maturity bond as a proxy for the market return. However, R2 shows weak model of portfolios with durations 2 and 3, which indicates that bondholders do not prefer to invest in gilts with these durations during the growth phase. The second sub-period results show weak portfolio returns with 3, 4, 8, and 20 years of durations during the pandemic. This indicates that bondholders tend to be conservative for short-term gilts due to low and negative yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Riffat Abdul Latif Mughal, 2021. "Bonds duration and COVID-19: A study on United Kingdom conventional gilts," Business Review, School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi, vol. 16(1), pages 55-75, January -.
    • Handle: RePEc:aho:journl:v:16:y:2021:i:1:p:55-75
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    File URL: https://ir.iba.edu.pk/businessreview/vol16/iss1/1/
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