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Analysis of HPAI Incidence Factors in Duck Farms Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model

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  • An, Meilan

Abstract

Duck farms are getting attention as the primary propagation medium of HPAI. Therefore, this study analyzes the effect of duck farms’ characteristics on the occurrence of HPAI. We classified duck farms’ characteristics into farm management method, facility status, and location type, and selected 25 variables related to them. We used survey data from 715 duck farms for our research. We conducted an overdispersion test to choose a proper model. The test result showed that a negative binomial regression model was more appropriate than a Poisson regression model. The simulation of the negative binomial regression model showed that the incidence of HPAI was higher in farms with a high gross margin, large breeding scale, and increasedmortality. In farms where shipment and manure vehiclesentered their premises, the occurrence of HPAI increased. In addition, the occurrence of HPAI rose in areas where many farms were clustered and in farms where roads and feed manufactures were closer.

Suggested Citation

  • An, Meilan, 2020. "Analysis of HPAI Incidence Factors in Duck Farms Using a Negative Binomial Regression Model," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 43(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jordng:330790
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.330790
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    Cited by:

    1. Meilan An & Jeffrey Vitale & Kwideok Han & John N. Ng’ombe & Inbae Ji, 2021. "Effects of Spatial Characteristics on the Spread of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-13, April.

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    Keywords

    Livestock Production/Industries;

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