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A Study on the Determinants of Corn and Wheat Futures Prices: Using Bayesian Model Averaging

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  • Choi, Sujin

Abstract

In this paper, we estimated the factors influencing the futures prices of corn and wheat through Bayesian model averaging. Uncertainty in the grains futures price is due to the fact that various factors other than real factors have a probabilistic impact. By using the results of this study and applying probabilistic factors, the ability to forecast grain futures price could be improved. Bayesian model averaging will help increase confidence in price estimates when used with a single model approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Sujin, 2017. "A Study on the Determinants of Corn and Wheat Futures Prices: Using Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 40(2), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jordng:330726
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.330726
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