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Forecasting Accuracy Comparison of EPIC Crop Simulation and Time Series Model

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  • Choi, Jongsan

Abstract

Faced with the need to solve complex and variable management problems in agriculture, agricultural economists have begun to use quantitative methods such as econometric models for their research. However, this approach only allows for research based on quantitative data. Crop simulations have been proposed as an alternative to overcome data limitation. This study aims to introduce an Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, to demonstrate EPIC’s usefulness for estimating past or future crop production by comparing forecast accuracy with forecasting time series methods, and to discuss the possibility of agricultural economists utilizing the EPIC model. Since the research result shows EPIC simulation has high forecast accuracy on crop production and can generate data which are very difficult to acquire in the real world, it is expected that the research integrated with crop simulation by agricultural economists will increase if they have the ability to run EPIC simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Jongsan, 2015. "Forecasting Accuracy Comparison of EPIC Crop Simulation and Time Series Model," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 38(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jordng:330676
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.330676
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