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Dynamic and Stochastic Structures of U.S. Cotton Exports and Mill Demand

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  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
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    Abstract

    This study employs a structural time-series method to model and estimate U.S. cotton exports and mill use. The results show that the stochastic process governing cotton export fluctuations is transitory, while the process pertaining to mill use has transitory, seasonal, and secular origins. The estimated structural relationships after accounting for the unobserved components indicate U.S. cotton exports respond directly to higher international price relative to domestic price of cotton, while mill use responds directly to U.S. textile output price and cotton-to-polyester price ratio. Exchange rate volatility and the U.S. Export Enhancement Program have no significant effect on cotton exports.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/57698
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia in its journal Journal of Agribusiness.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:jloagb:57698

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    Postal: 301 Conner Hall, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602-7509
    Web page: http://www.agecon.uga.edu/~jab/
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    Related research

    Keywords: cotton exports; cotton mill use; Kalman filter; state space; unobserved components; Crop Production/Industries; International Relations/Trade; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis;

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