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Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?

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  • Zhang, Wendong
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Hart, Chad

Abstract

Using agricultural professionals’ forecasts of future farmland values and corn and soybean cash prices for their service area, we analyze whether their land and corresponding crop price expectations are consistent. We find that changes in expected land prices over time are positively correlated with expected crop price changes, suggesting these two forecasts are somewhat consistent. More importantly, we find that the linkage between these two forecasts is significantly stronger in the mediumand long-term as opposed to the shortterm, as well as a substantially stronger correlation for districts that have heavier reliance on crop production as a net farm income source.
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Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wendong & Zhang, Wei & Hart, Chad, 2018. "Are Agricultural Professionals’ Farmland Value and Crop Price Forecasts Consistent?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jasfmr:322643
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.322643
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/322643/files/2018_Zhang.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Styan, Jacob & Boerngen, Maria A. & Barrowclough, Michael J., 2021. "Factors Influencing Increased Usage of Cash Rent Leases in Illinois," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2021.

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