Prospects for agricultural markets and incomes in the European Union: 2010-2020

The stakes of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2013 are closely linked with the situation which will prevail on the Community and international agricultural markets in the next decade. Here we propose a summary and discussion on the existing information regarding the markets for agricultural products after 2010, relying on three projections proposed by international bodies, by 2020 or 2025: i) “prospects for agricultural markets and incomes in the European Union” centred on the projections (2010-2020) of the Community markets for major agricultural products and followed by an analysis of the development induced from agricultural incomes, produced by the European Commission (EC); ii) the 2010-2020 projections of the world agricultural markets achieved by the OECD and the FAO with the model AGLINK/COSIMO; and iii) the projections 2011-2025 provided by the American Institute FAPRI with the eponymous model. The main results indicate a moderate increase in agricultural prices with a greater risk of variability, growth in plant productions supported by the demand for biofuels, and a high exposure to competition in animal productions of the community. These results are weakened by the uncertain economic environment and are mainly sensitive to assumptions concerning productivity reserves and demand performances.