Analysis of Land Use Change and Driving Factors in Mojiang County Based on PLUS Model

[Objectives] To explore the characteristics of land use change and its main influencing factors in Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020, and try to provide a scientific reference for alleviating the contradiction between man and land in Mojiang County and realizing the sustainable development of regional land resources. [Methods] Based on the land cover data and socio-economic data of Mojiang County from 2000 to 2020, the dynamic degree of land use, land use transfer matrix and center-of-gravity transfer model were calculated, and the temporal and spatial change characteristics and driving factors of various types of land use were calculated by PLUS model. [Results] From 2000 to 2020, the area and proportion of grassland, waters and construction land in Mojiang County showed an upward trend, while the area and proportion of cultivated land and forest land showed a downward trend. Among them, cultivated land was mainly converted into forest land and grassland, and some were converted into waters and construction land; forest land was mainly converted into cultivated land and grassland, and part of it was converted into waters and construction land. From 2000 to 2020, the center-of-gravity of cultivated land, forest land and construction land in Mojiang County moved to the southeast of the county, and the moving rates were 0.66, 1.97 and 10.58 km/yr, respectively; the center-of-gravity of grassland and waters moved to the southwest of the county, and the moving rates were 1.30 and 20.20 km/yr, respectively. Distance from road, distance from government and distance from waters are the main driving forces affecting land use change in Mojiang County; the forecast shows that in 2040, the area of grassland and forest land in Mojiang County will continue to decrease, the area of cultivated land will turn to rise, and the area of waters and construction land will continue to rise. [Conclusions] Reasonable planning and optimizing the allocation of cultivated land and forest land structure and strict control of the expansion scale of construction land are necessary measures to ensure the coordinated development of regional land rational use and economic construction.