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Debt Sustainability Forecasting. Case Of Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Nicolescu

    (West University of Timişoara)

  • Oana Lobonţ

    (West University of Timişoara)

  • Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan

    (West University of Timişoara)

Abstract

Sustainability can also be assessed in other terms but the size of the accumulated stock of public debt. Even with an indebtedness degree of 20%, budget and fiscal policies may be unsustainable if, for example, that State is unable to pay its obligations arising from the contracted public loans, so if it is not creditworthy. Public debt’s sustainability can be represented as a relationship between the budgetary balance (surplus or deficit and public debt, for any annual GDP growth rate. There are two versions of the mentioned relationship, depending on considering the consolidated or primary budgetary surplus / deficit. In order to achieve an empirical analysis of public debt sustainable in Romania, in this paper we consider a data set of quarterly time horizons for the period 2000- 2008 for the share of public debt to GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Nicolescu & Oana Lobonţ & Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan, 2011. "Debt Sustainability Forecasting. Case Of Romania," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 5(5(558)(su), pages 831-838, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:5(558)(supplement):y:2011:i:5(558)(supplement):p:831-838
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