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Determinantes Macroeconômicos da Popularidade do Presidente da República: uma Análise sob a Ótica dos Ciclos Políticos Eleitorais (2003-2010)

Author

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  • Pedro Raffy Vartanian

    (Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie (UPM))

  • Raphael Almeida Videira

    (Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie (UPM))

Abstract

This paper aims to test the relationship between the president’s popularity and some macroeconomic variables from the perspective of political business cycles. The choice of macroeconomic variables was based on Harrison and Marsh (1998) (for interest rate), Carlsen (2000) (for unemployment) and Chang, Hsieh and Ying (2009) (for GDP). The test is performed using data from 2003 to 2010 con-sidering VAR methodology. Our results suggest that unemployment rate and in-terest rate (Selic) can be negatively associated with government popularity. The result for the unemployment rate can be seen in Carlson (2000) whereas the in-terest rate finding is distinct from Harrison and Marsh (1998) (the authors found no evidence in this regard). But the relationship between GDP growth and gover-nment popularity can be positive as seen in Chang, Hsieh and Ying (2009).

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Raffy Vartanian & Raphael Almeida Videira, 2011. "Determinantes Macroeconômicos da Popularidade do Presidente da República: uma Análise sob a Ótica dos Ciclos Políticos Eleitorais (2003-2010)," Revista de Economia Mackenzie (REM), Mackenzie Presbyterian University, Social and Applied Sciences Center, vol. 9(2), pages 39-64, may-augus.
    • Handle: RePEc:aft:journl:v:9:2:2011:may:aug:p:39-64
    DOI: -
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