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Un modèle démo-économique de la Révolution Industrielle


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Cet article décrit un modèle démo-économique à deux secteurs (agricole et non agricole) appliqué à l'Europe pour la période allant de la révolution agricole du néolithique à la Révolution Industrielle. Le modèle décrit le conflit permanent qui existe entre l'accroissement démographique et la production agricole. Tant que la production agricole par tête est au-dessus d'un minimum vital, la population croît à un taux fixe. Dès que cette production tombe en dessous du minimum, des crises de mortalités aléatoires font baisser la population, jusqu'à ce que la production remonte au-dessus de la valeur minimum. La société est ainsi dans une « trappe malthusienne ». L'amplitude moyenne des crises de mortalités est supposée décroître lorsque le capital s'accroît, ce qui correspondant à une « résistance accrue » de la population rendue possible par l'accumulation des connaissances et des progrès technologiques. Avec le lent accroissement du capital les crises de mortalité deviennent alors moins sévères; la population du secteur non agricole et le capital croissent suffisamment pour permettre une échappée définitive de la trappe malthusienne, c'est-à-dire la Révolution Industrielle.

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Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative').

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): 30 (October)
Pages: 1807-1821

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Handle: RePEc:afc:ecosoc:y:2003:i:30:p:1807-1821

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Cited by:
  1. David Flacher, 2005. "Industrial Revolutions and Consumption: A Common Model to the Various Periods of Industrialization," CEPN Working Papers, HAL halshs-00132241, HAL.
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00132241 is not listed on IDEAS


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