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Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG

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  • Terry Barker, Haoran Pan, Jonathan Kohler, Rachel Warren, and Sarah Winne

Abstract

This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometric approach to modeling the global economy using the model E3MG (energy-environment-economy model of the globe), which in turn constitutes one component in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) of the UK Tyndall Centre. The model is simplified to provide a post-Keynesian view of the long-run, with an indicator of technological progress affecting each regionÕs exports and energy use. When technological progress is endogenous in this way, long-run growth in global GDP is partly explained by the model. Average permit prices and tax rates about $430/tC (1995) prices after 2050 are sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at 450ppm CO2 after 2100. They also lead to higher economic growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Endogenous Technological Change (2006)
Issue (Month): Special Issue #1 ()
Pages: 241-258

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006se-a12

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas, 2012. "On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities," Papers 1209.0708, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
  2. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique & Barker, Terry & Riahi, Keywan & Boeters, Stefan & Chateau, Jean & Scrieciu, Serban & van Vliet, Jasper & Masui, Toshihiko & Blok, Kornelis & Blomen, Eliane , 2009. "Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5125-5139, December.
  3. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
  4. Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas, 2013. "An assessment of energy resources for global decarbonisation," 4CMR Working Paper Series 002, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
  5. Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.
  6. Kosugi, Takanobu, 2013. "A paradox regarding economic support to deploy renewable energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1111-1115.
  7. Pollitt, Hector & Park, Seung-Joon & Lee, Soocheol & Ueta, Kazuhiro, 2014. "An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 243-254.
  8. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
  9. Takanobu Kosugi, 2010. "Assessments of ‘Greenhouse Insurance’: A Methodological Review," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 345-363, December.

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