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Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Electricity in New Zealand: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

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  • Koli Fatai
  • Les Oxley
  • Frank G. Scrimgeour

Abstract

Models of energy demand in New Zealand have typically been based upon either a partial general equilibrium approach or constructed from spreadsheet models. The results created by such methods predict that electricity is forecast to be the fastest growing energy demanded by households and the industrial sector for the next two decades. Furthermore, aggregate electricity demand is forecast to grow at a constant rate for the next two decades. In this paper we attempt to model and forecast electricity demand using a number of recent econometric approaches including Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model, Phillip and Hansen's (1990) Fully Modified Least Squares, and the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach of Pesaran et al. (1996, 1998). We identify the model with the smallest forecasting error using a series of forecasting measures and conclude that the new ARDL approach of Pesaran et al., has better forecasting performance than the other approaches considered.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume 24 (2003)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
Pages: 75-102

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2003v24-01-a04

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Cited by:
  1. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.
  2. Dagher, Leila, 2012. "Natural gas demand at the utility level: An application of dynamic elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 961-969.
  3. Sanidas, Elias & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2006. "The Consequences of Trade Liberalisation on the Australian Passenger Motor Vehicle Industry," Economics Working Papers wp06-01, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  4. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Chor Tang & Bee Tan, 2014. "The linkages among energy consumption, economic growth, relative price, foreign direct investment, and financial development in Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 781-797, March.
  6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2010. "Dynamic modelling of energy consumption, capital stock, and real income in G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-581, May.
  7. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2011. "Electricity demand elasticities and temperature: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression with instrumental variable approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 896-902, September.
  9. Lim, Kyoung-Min & Lim, Seul-Ye & Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2014. "Short- and long-run elasticities of electricity demand in the Korean service sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 517-521.
  10. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2011. "Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5519-5527, September.

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