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Energy Demand Modeling with Noisy Input-Output Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Lov Kumar Kher
  • Fereidoon P. Sioshansi
  • Soroosh Sorooshian

Abstract

One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How It Didn't Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed," 1986). The same can be said of electricity forecasters who consistently overshot growth rates for over a decade despite compelling signs to lower their projections (Uhler and Nelson, 1985), (see Figure 1).

Suggested Citation

  • Lov Kumar Kher & Fereidoon P. Sioshansi & Soroosh Sorooshian, 1987. "Energy Demand Modeling with Noisy Input-Output Variables," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 33-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1987v08-04-a04
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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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