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Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965–2022

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  • Alan S. Blinder

Abstract

"Soft landings," that is, cases in which the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession (which would be a "hard landing"), are thought to be difficult to achieve and extremely rare. According to the conventional wisdom, the Federal Reserve has managed to achieve only one soft landing in the past 60 years—in 1994–1995. This paper studies the eleven episodes of monetary policy tightening by the Fed since 1965, and concludes that the central bank has a better record than that—that as long as the criteria for softness are not too stringent, and Fed was actually trying to land the economy softly, the Fed has succeeded several times. Achieving a soft landing, however, requires both skill in managing monetary policy and the absence of adverse external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan S. Blinder, 2023. "Landings, Soft and Hard: The Federal Reserve, 1965–2022," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 101-120, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:37:y:2023:i:1:p:101-20
    DOI: 10.1257/jep.37.1.101
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Susan M. Collins, 2023. "Reflections on Phasing Policy Amidst (Pandemic) Uncertainty: the 2023 Goldman Lecture in Economics at Wellesley College," Speech 97116, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Donato Masciandaro, 2023. "How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23196, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. Ruman, Asif M., 2023. "A Comparative Textual Study of FOMC Transcripts Through Inflation Peaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Philip N. Jefferson, 2024. "Is This Time Different? Recent Monetary Policy Cycles in Retrospect: A speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., February 22, 2024," Speech 97781, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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