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Leveraging Posterity's Prosperity?

Author

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  • Johannes Brumm
  • Laurence Kotlikoff
  • Felix Kubler

Abstract

We critically review studies by Blanchard (B) and Rachel and Summers (RS). By the standard fiscal-gap measure, the US government is in dire fiscal shape thanks to constantly enlarging its postwar, take-as-you-go Ponzi scheme. Yet B and RS seemingly rationalize its expansion. Their arguments rest on the safe rate being very low. But almost all households face high safe rates—the rates available from pre-paying their loans. We also question modeling assumptions that help drive key B and RS results and reference recent simulation studies, which reach strongly opposite conclusions to B's.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Brumm & Laurence Kotlikoff & Felix Kubler, 2020. "Leveraging Posterity's Prosperity?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 152-156, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:152-56
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201104
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    Cited by:

    1. Brumm, Johannes & Feng, Xiangyu & Kotlikoff, Laurence & Kubler, Felix, 2022. "Are deficits free?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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