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The "Standard Error" of Event Studies: Lessons from the 2016 Election

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Wolfers
  • Eric Zitzewitz

Abstract

The 2016 Election offers an unusually stark warning about the limitations of event studies. In four separate pre-election event windows, financial market responses to shifts in electoral probabilities were consistent with expectations that a surprise Trump win would lead the S&P 500 to fall by 11 percent. The initial decline that accompanied Trump's win was more than reversed on the day after the election, however, suggesting a reassessment of its expected effect. We discuss explanations for this reassessment. But our broader point is methodological: today's event study may not reveal tomorrow's market expectation.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2018. "The "Standard Error" of Event Studies: Lessons from the 2016 Election," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 584-589, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:108:y:2018:p:584-89
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20181090
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hanke, Michael & Stöckl, Sebastian & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2020. "Political event portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & Gray, Stephen & Zhong, Angel, 2020. "Political uncertainty, market anomalies and Presidential honeymoons," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Child, Travers Barclay & Massoud, Nadia & Schabus, Mario & Zhou, Yifan, 2021. "Surprise election for Trump connections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 676-697.
    4. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard J. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2018. "Company stock price reactions to the 2016 election shock: Trump, taxes, and trade," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 428-451.
    5. Barraza, Santiago & Rossi, Martín A & Ruzzier, Christian A, 2022. "Sleeping with the enemy: The perils of having the government on(the)board," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 641-651.
    6. Kostakis, Alexandros & Mu, Liangyi & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2023. "Detecting political event risk in the option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Paolo Manasse & Graziano Moramarco & Giulio Trigilia, 2024. "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 621-652, April.
    8. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "The Efficacy of Large-Scale Asset Purchases When the Short-Term Interest Rate Is at Its Effective Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 543-554.
    9. Hennicke, Moritz & Blanga-Gubbay, Michael, 2023. "Betting on the Wrong Horse: Lobbying on TPP and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," OSF Preprints zcwsn, Center for Open Science.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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