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On the Experimental Robustness of the Allais Paradox

Author

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  • Pavlo Blavatskyy
  • Andreas Ortmann
  • Valentyn Panchenko

Abstract

The Allais Paradox, or the common consequence effect, is a well-known behavioral regularity in individual decision-making under risk. Data from 81 experiments reported in 29 studies reveal that the Allais Paradox is a fragile empirical finding. The Allais Paradox is likely to be observed in experiments with high hypothetical payoffs, the medium outcome being close to the highest outcome and when lotteries are presented as a probability distribution (not in a compound form). The Allais Paradox is likely to be reversed in experiments when the probability mass is equally split between the lowest and highest outcomes in risky lotteries.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavlo Blavatskyy & Andreas Ortmann & Valentyn Panchenko, 2022. "On the Experimental Robustness of the Allais Paradox," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 143-163, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:14:y:2022:i:1:p:143-63
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190153
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    Cited by:

    1. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory#," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt32j4d5z2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Leo Chi U Seak & Simone Ferrari-Toniolo & Ritesh Jain & Kirby Nielsen & Wolfram Schultz, 2023. "Systematic comparison of risky choices in humans and monkeys," Working Papers 202316, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    3. Moshe Levy, 2022. "An evolutionary explanation of the Allais paradox," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1545-1574, November.
    4. Simone Ferrari-Toniolo & Leo Chi U. Seak & Wolfram Schultz, 2022. "Risky choice: Probability weighting explains independence axiom violations in monkeys," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 319-351, December.
    5. Steven J. Humphrey & Nadia-Yasmine Kruse, 2024. "Who accepts Savage’s axiom now?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(1), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Pavlo Blavatskyy & Valentyn Panchenko & Andreas Ortmann, 2023. "How common is the common-ratio effect?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 253-272, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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