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Voter Turnout and Preference Aggregation

Author

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  • Kei Kawai
  • Yuta Toyama
  • Yasutora Watanabe

Abstract

We study how voter turnout affects the aggregation of preferences in elections. Under voluntary voting, election outcomes disproportionately aggregate the preferences of voters with low voting cost and high preference intensity. We show identification of the correlation structure among preferences, costs, and perceptions of voting efficacy, and explore how the correlation affects preference aggregation. Using 2004 US presidential election data, we find that young, low-income, less-educated, and minority voters are underrepresented. All of these groups tend to prefer Democrats, except for the less educated. Democrats would have won the majority of the electoral votes if all eligible voters had turned out.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Kawai & Yuta Toyama & Yasutora Watanabe, 2021. "Voter Turnout and Preference Aggregation," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 548-586, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:13:y:2021:i:4:p:548-86
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20190063
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Canen & Kristopher Ramsay, 2023. "Quantifying Theory in Politics: Identification, Interpretation and the Role of Structural Methods," Papers 2302.01897, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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