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Market Panics, Frenzies, and Informational Efficiency: Theory and Experiment

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  • Chad Kendall

Abstract

In a market rush, the fear of future adverse price movements causes traders to trade before they become well informed, reducing the informational efficiency of the market. I derive theoretical conditions under which market rushes are equilibrium behavior and study how well these conditions organize trading behavior in a laboratory implementation of the model. Market rushes, including both panics and frenzies, occur more frequently when predicted by theory. However, subjects use commonly discussed, momentum-like strategies that lead to informational losses not predicted by theory, suggesting that these strategies may exacerbate both the occurrence and consequences of panics and frenzies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad Kendall, 2020. "Market Panics, Frenzies, and Informational Efficiency: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 76-115, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:76-115
    DOI: 10.1257/mic.20180190
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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