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Reputation, Bailouts, and Interest Rate Spread Dynamics

Author

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  • Alessandro Dovis
  • Rishabh Kirpalani

Abstract

We propose a joint theory for interest rate dynamics and bailout decisions. Interest rate spreads are driven by time-varying fundamentals and expectations of future bailouts. Private agents are uncertain about the government's willingness to bail out and learn by observing its actions. The model provides an explanation for why we observe governments initially refusing to bail out borrowers at the beginning of a crisis even if they eventually end up providing a bailout after the crisis aggravates. The typical equilibrium outcome displays hump-shaped spreads and contagion as was the case in the US financial and European debt crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Dovis & Rishabh Kirpalani, 2022. "Reputation, Bailouts, and Interest Rate Spread Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 411-449, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:3:p:411-49
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190022
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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