Information Aggregation in Polls
AbstractWe study information transmission via polling. A policymaker polls constituents, who differ in their information and ideology, to determine policy. Full revelation is an equilibrium in a poll with a small sample, but not with a large one. In large polls, full information aggregation can arise in an equilibrium where constituents endogenously sort themselves into centrists, who respond truthfully, and extremists, who do not. We find polling statistics that ignore strategic behavior yield biased estimators and mischaracterize the poll's margin of error. We construct estimators that account for strategic behavior. Finally, we compare polls and elections.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Hummel, Patrick, 2011. "Abstention and signaling in large repeated elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 586-593, June.
- McGee, Andrew & Yang, Huanxing, 2013. "Cheap talk with two senders and complementary information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 181-191.
- Bernhardt, Dan & Duggan, John & Squintani, Francesco, 2009. "Private polling in elections and voter welfare," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(5), pages 2021-2056, September.
- Daron Acemoglu & Asuman E. Ozdaglar, 2010.
"Opinion Dynamics and Learning in Social Networks,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
661465000000000222, David K. Levine.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Simon, Leo K. & Zhao, Jinhua, 2008.
"Rational exaggeration in information aggregation games,"
CUDARE Working Paper Series
1067, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Simon, Leo K. & Zhao, Jinhua, 2008. "Rational Exaggeration in Information Aggregation Games," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9nc4n5s6, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Martin J. Osborne & Matthew A. Turner, 2010. "Cost Benefit Analyses versus Referenda," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 156-187, 02.
- Curtis R. Taylor & Huseyin Yildirim, 2006. "An Analysis of Rational Voting with Private Values and Cost Uncertainty," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000060, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Kawamura, Kohei, 2013. "Eliciting information from a large population," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-54.
- Andonie, Costel & Kuzmics, Christoph, 2012. "Pre-election polls as strategic coordination devices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 681-700.
- Bargagliotti, Anna E. & Li, Lingfang (Ivy), 2009. "Decision Making Using Rating Systems: When Scale Meets Binary," MPRA Paper 16947, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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