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The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions

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  • Christina Patterson

Abstract

This paper shows that the unequal incidence of recessions in the labor market amplifies aggregate shocks. Using administrative data from the United States, I document a positive covariance between workers' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and their elasticities of earnings to GDP, which is a key moment for a new class of heterogeneous-agent models. I define the matching multiplier as the increase in the multiplier stemming from this matching of high MPC workers to more cyclical jobs. I show that this covariance is large enough to increase the aggregate MPC by 20 percent over an equal exposure benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Patterson, 2023. "The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 982-1012, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:4:p:982-1012
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210254
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    Cited by:

    1. Schnorpfeil, Philip & Weber, Michael & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation," SAFE Working Paper Series 400, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Marbet, Joël & Nuño, Galo & Rachedi, Omar, 2023. "Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 18168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Felipe Alves & Sushant Acharya, 2024. "How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy," Staff Analytical Notes 2024-3, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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