IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v112y2022i9p2851-83.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility

Author

Listed:
  • David Danz
  • Lise Vesterlund
  • Alistair J. Wilson

Abstract

Subjective beliefs are crucial for economic inference, yet behavior can challenge the elicitation. We propose that belief elicitation should be incentive compatible not only theoretically but also in a de facto behavioral sense. To demonstrate, we show that the binarized scoring rule, a state-of-the-art elicitation, violates two weak conditions for behavioral incentive compatibility: (i) within the elicitation, information on the incentives increases deviations from truthful reporting; and (ii) in a pure choice over the set of incentives, most deviate from the theorized maximizer. Moreover, we document that deviations are systematic and center-biased, and that the elicited beliefs substantially distort inference.

Suggested Citation

  • David Danz & Lise Vesterlund & Alistair J. Wilson, 2022. "Belief Elicitation and Behavioral Incentive Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(9), pages 2851-2883, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:9:p:2851-83
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20201248
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E157161V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20201248.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20201248.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/aer.20201248?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Crosetto, Paolo & de Haan, Thomas, 2023. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18, pages 1-1, January.
    2. Kinnl, Klara & Möller, Jakob & Walter, Anna, 2023. "Borrowed Plumes:," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 345, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Malte Baader & Simon Gaechter & Kyeongtae Lee & Martin Sefton, 2022. "Social preferences and the variability of conditional cooperation," Discussion Papers 2022-13, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    5. Kinnl, Klara & Möller, Jakob & Walter, Anna, 2023. "Borrowed Plumes: The Gender Gap in Claiming Credit for Teamwork," Department for Strategy and Innovation Working Paper Series 01/2023, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Ran Canetti & Amos Fiat & Yannai A. Gonczarowski, 2023. "Zero-Knowledge Mechanisms," Papers 2302.05590, arXiv.org.
    7. Evan M. Calford & Anujit Chakraborty, 2022. "Higher-order Beliefs in a Sequential Social Dilemma," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2022-681, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    8. Francesco Bripi & Daniela Grieco, 2023. "Participatory incentives," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(4), pages 813-849, September.
    9. Wenbo Zou & Xue Xu, 2023. "Ingroup bias in a social learning experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 27-54, March.
    10. Jan Feld & Edwin Ip & Andreas Leibbrandt & Joseph Vecci, 2022. "Identifying and Overcoming Gender Barriers in Tech: A Field Experiment on Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination," Discussion Papers 2205, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    11. Marco Mantovani & Antonio Filippin, 2024. "When do prediction markets return average beliefs? Experimental evidence," Working Papers 532, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    12. Klara Kinnl & Jakob Möller & Anna Walter, 2023. "The Gender Gap in Claiming Credit for Teamwork," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp345, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    13. Charles Angelucci & Andrea Prat, 2024. "Is Journalistic Truth Dead? Measuring How Informed Voters Are about Political News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 887-925, April.
    14. Ahrens, Steffen & Bosch-Rosa, Ciril, 2023. "Motivated beliefs, social preferences, and limited liability in financial decision-Making," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Lata Gangadharan & Philip J. Grossman & Nina Xue, 2022. "Stepping Stone: Identifying self-image concerns from motivated beliefs: Does it matter how and whom you ask?," Monash Economics Working Papers 2022-05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    16. Lina Lozano & Ernesto Reuben, 2022. "Measuring Preferences for Competition," Working Papers 20220078, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Aug 2022.
    17. Alexander Coutts & Boon Han Koh & Zahra Murad, 2024. "The signals we give: Performance feedback, gender, and competition," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-02, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    18. Charlotte Cordes & Jana Friedrichsen & Simeon Schudy, 2023. "Motivated Procrastination," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 471, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    19. Tom Lane, 2023. "The strategic use of social identity," Discussion Papers 2023-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:9:p:2851-83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.