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Assessment and forecasting bankruptcy risk of mining companies

Author

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  • N. A. Kazakova
  • A. F. Leshchinskaya
  • A. E. Sivkova

Abstract

Comparative analysis of domestic and foreign methods of bankruptcy diagnostics allowed to offer key determinants for modeling the probability of bankruptcy taking into account the industry specificity of mining and metallurgical companies. On the basis of a generalization of the results of the correlation analysis, a high interrelation between indices of industrial production and indices – indicators of the probability of bankruptcy of these companies was revealed. The possibilities of monitoring the evaluation of indicators obtained on the basis of financial statements. Monitoring of calculated coefficients is necessary to ensure the reliability and sustainability of companies’ work and is a forecasting mechanism that allows to predict changes in the financial situation in the future. The bankruptcy probability assessment was carried out for a group of enterprises including: Рublic Сompany Vysokogorsky ore mining and processing enterprise, Рublic Сompany Bashkir coppersulfur plant, Рublic Сompany Pechenganikel being a production unit of Kola Mining and Metallurgical Company OJSC and Рublic Сompany Severstal, RUSAL. As a result of the conducted research of the five largest companies of the mining and metallurgical complex, based on the indicators of the probability of bankruptcy, proposals have been developed for the system of indicators for inclusion in the discriminant model of forecasting bankruptcy, which will improve the accuracy of the results of diagnosing insolvency risks of companies. In addition, a basic algorithm is proposed that reflects the scenario of controlling the risk of bankruptcy for the companies of the mining and metallurgical complex.

Suggested Citation

  • N. A. Kazakova & A. F. Leshchinskaya & A. E. Sivkova, 2018. "Assessment and forecasting bankruptcy risk of mining companies," Russian Journal of Industrial Economics, MISIS, vol. 11(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:ach:journl:y:2018:id:690
    DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2018-3-261-272
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. A. Kazakova & A. I. Bolvachev & A. L. Gendon & G. F. Golubeva, 2016. "Monitoring economic security in the region based on indicators of sustainable development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 638-648, November.
    2. N. A. Kazakova & A. I. Bolvacheva & A. L. Gendon & G. F. Golubeva, 2017. "Value added analysis and trend forecasting in the manufacturing industry in Kaliningrad oblast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 160-168, March.
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