Modeling The Effects Of Actions Risk Strategy Development Of Innovative Industrial Complex

The article discusses a new simulation approach allowing quickly and cost effectively estimate effects of risks on the development of production systems. Using the example of the superconducting plant, built by TVEL Fuel Company, which produces innovative products for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, the paper examines how the described forecasting model can be applied to risk assessment procedure.The forecasting model on the basis of weighted graphs was created in R&D Center of Technological Forecasting of The National University of Science and Technology MISiS. The advantages of this approach are: a small amount of initial information for the model; system approach; simplicity of description of the dynamic processes and main indicators; capability to use different types of variables; getting quick results; ease of interpretation and flexible model structure.In this paper we used the procedure for identifying and classifying risks, representing the effects of external factors on the described organizational and technical system. The paper also explains the calculated results of the effects of the identified risks: it was shown that at the end of the forecast period the most risks considerably reduce effectiveness of the main components of pro-duction plant by 15…30%. Defined the most vulnerable components of the plant exposed to the negative impacts of risks.The proposed risk assessment methodology based on the dynamic prediction models recommended using in the development of effective management decisions of innovative industrial complexes.