IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spe/wpaper/0625.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Existence and Persistence of a Winner’s Curse: New Evidence from the (Baseball) Field

Author

Listed:
  • John D. Burger

    (Department of Economics, Loyola College in Maryland)

  • Stephen J.K. Walters

    (Department of Economics, Loyola College in Maryland)

Abstract

This study takes advantage of recent developments in the measurement and valuation of individual output in the baseball labor market to (i) reassess prior evidence that this market is afflicted by the winner’s curse phenomenon and (ii) test whether bidders learn to avoid this curse over time. Though we find no evidence of negative average returns on player contracts for the earliest cohort of baseball free agents, we conclude that teams in that era failed to efficiently discount their bids in accord with available information, especially about risk. What is more, evidence from a larger sample of players signed in the late 1990s shows that teams have continued to overvalue inconsistent free agents and failed to limit their bids to conform to players’ lower values in small markets. This is consistent with experimental evidence that finds bounded-rational behavior when bidders are faced with complex valuation problems involving multiple elements.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger & Stephen J.K. Walters, 2006. "The Existence and Persistence of a Winner’s Curse: New Evidence from the (Baseball) Field," Working Papers 0625, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0625
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/spe/BurgerWalters_WinnersCurse.pdf
    File Function: Revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krautmann, Anthony C, 1999. "What's Wrong with Scully-Estimates of a Player's Marginal Revenue Product," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 369-381, April.
    2. Scully, Gerald W, 1974. "Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 915-930, December.
    3. John Goddard & Peter J. Sloane, 2005. "Economics of sport," Chapters, in: Simon W. Bowmaker (ed.), Economics Uncut, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. John D. Burger & Stephen J. K. Walters, 2003. "Market Size, Pay, and Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 108-125, May.
    5. Koh, Francis & Walter, Terry, 1989. "A direct test of Rock's model of the pricing of unseasoned issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 251-272, August.
    6. Christopher R. Bollinger & Julie L. Hotchkiss, 2003. "The Upside Potential of Hiring Risky Workers: Evidence from the Baseball Industry," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(4), pages 923-944, October.
    7. Hendricks, Kenneth & Porter, Robert H, 1988. "An Empirical Study of an Auction with Asymmetric Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 865-883, December.
    8. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2009. "The Origin of the Winner's Curse: A Laboratory Study," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 207-236, February.
    9. Kahn, Lawrence M, 1993. "Free Agency, Long-Term Contracts and Compensation in Major League Baseball: Estimates from Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 157-164, February.
    10. Anthony Krautmann, 2009. "Market size and the demand for talent in major league baseball," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(25), pages 3267-3273.
    11. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April.
    12. Edward P Lazear, 1998. "Hiring Risky Workers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Isao Ohashi & Toshiaki Tachibanaki (ed.), Internal Labour Markets, Incentives and Employment, chapter 7, pages 143-158, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Paul M. Sommers & Noel Quinton, 1982. "Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball: The Case of the First Family of Free Agents," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 17(3), pages 426-436.
    14. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September.
    15. Edward P. Lazear, 1995. "Hiring Risky Workers," NBER Working Papers 5334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Levis, Mario, 1990. "The Winner's Curse Problem, Interest Costs and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 76-89, March.
    17. John L. Solow & Anthony C. Krautmann, 2007. "Leveling the Playing Field or Just Lowering Salaries? The Effects of Redistribution in Baseball," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(4), pages 947-958, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rodney Fort & Young Hoon Lee & Taeyeon Oh, 2019. "Quantile Insights on Market Structure and Worker Salaries: The Case of Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(8), pages 1066-1087, December.
    2. Anthony C. Krautmann, 2013. "What Is Right With Scully Estimates of a Player’s Marginal Revenue Product," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 97-105, February.
    3. Maria Fotaki & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Human resources turnover as an asset acquisition and divestiture process: Evidence from the U.K. football industry," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2696-2711, July.
    4. Anthony C. Krautmann & James Ciecka, 2009. "The Postseason Value of an Elite Player to a Contending Team," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 168-179, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Terry, Ryan P. & McGee, Jeffrey E. & Kass, Malcolm J., 2018. "The not-so-free agent: Non-performance factors that contribute to free agent compensation premiums," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 189-201.
    2. Jahn K. Hakes & Chad Turner, 2008. "Long-Term Contracts in Major League Baseball," Working Papers 0831, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    3. Cornaglia, Francesca & Feldman, Naomi E., 2011. "Productivity, Wages, and Marriage: The Case of Major League Baseball," IZA Discussion Papers 5695, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Haupert, Michael & Murray, James, 2011. "Regime Switching and Wages in Major League Baseball under the Reserve Clause," MPRA Paper 29094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stephen J. K. Walters & Peter Allmen & Anthony Krautmann, 2017. "Risk Aversion and Wages: Evidence from the Baseball Labor Market," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 385-397, September.
    6. Pelnar, Gregory, 2007. "Antitrust Analysis of Sports Leagues," MPRA Paper 5382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Anthony C. Krautmann, 2017. "Risk-Averse Team Owners and Players’ Salaries in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 19-33, January.
    8. John D. Burger & Stephen J. K. Walters, 2009. "Uncertain Prospects," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(5), pages 485-501, October.
    9. Roberto Pedace & Curtis M. Hall, 2012. "Home Safe: No-Trade Clauses and Player Salaries in Major League Baseball," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 627-644, July.
    10. John Charles Bradbury, 2007. "Does the Baseball Labor Market Properly Value Pitchers?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(6), pages 616-632, December.
    11. Joshua M. Congdon-Hohman & Jonathan A. Lanning, 2018. "Beyond Moneyball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(7), pages 1046-1061, October.
    12. Vincent P. Crawford & Nagore Iriberri, 2007. "Level-k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private-Value Auctions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1721-1770, November.
    13. Thomas Zimmerfaust, 2018. "Are Workers Willing To Pay To Join A Better Team?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 1278-1295, April.
    14. Yiling Chen & Alon Eden & Juntao Wang, 2021. "Cursed yet Satisfied Agents," Papers 2104.00835, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    15. Gary Charness & Dan Levin, 2009. "The Origin of the Winner's Curse: A Laboratory Study," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 207-236, February.
    16. Joel Maxcy, 2004. "Motivating long-term employment contracts: risk management in major league baseball," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 109-120.
    17. Rachel Scarfe & Carl Singleton & Adesola Sunmoni & Paul Telemo, 2024. "The age‐wage‐productivity puzzle: Evidence from the careers of top earners," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 584-606, April.
    18. John Burger & Stephen Walters, 2008. "Testing Fair Wage Theory," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 318-332, December.
      • John D. Burger & Stephen J.K. Walters, 2006. "Testing Fair Wage Theory," Working Papers 0623, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    19. Georges Dionne & Mélissa La Haye & Anne-Sophie Bergerès, 2015. "Does asymmetric information affect the premium in mergers and acquisitions?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 819-852, August.
    20. Anthony C. Krautmann & Elizabeth Gustafson & Lawrence Hadley, 2003. "A Note on the Structural Stability of Salary Equations," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(1), pages 56-63, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    market efficiency; bounded rationality; overbidding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0625. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Victor Matheson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.