IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20212577.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data

Author

Listed:
  • Joao, Igor Custodio
  • Lucas, André
  • Schaumburg, Julia
  • Schwaab, Bernd

Abstract

We propose a dynamic clustering model for uncovering latent time-varying group structures in multivariate panel data. The model is dynamic in three ways. First, the cluster location and scale matrices are time-varying to track gradual changes in cluster characteristics over time. Second, all units can transition between clusters based on a Hidden Markov model (HMM). Finally, the HMM’s transition matrix can depend on lagged time-varying cluster distances as well as economic covariates. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the units can be classified reliably in a variety of challenging settings. Incorporating dynamics in the cluster composition proves empirically important in an a study of 299 European banks between 2008Q1 and 2018Q2. We find that approximately 3% of banks transition per quarter on average. Transition probabilities are in part explained by differences in bank profitability, suggesting that low interest rates can lead to long-lasting changes in financial industry structure. JEL Classification: G21, C33

Suggested Citation

  • Joao, Igor Custodio & Lucas, André & Schaumburg, Julia & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "Dynamic clustering of multivariate panel data," Working Paper Series 2577, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212577
    Note: 955417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2577~abb08ca67a.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liangjun Su & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2016. "Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2215-2264, November.
    2. Evan Munro & Serena Ng, 2022. "Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Responses," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 256-271, January.
    3. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.
    4. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    5. Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Monteiro, André B., 2009. "Credit cycles and macro fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54, January.
    6. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2015. "Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    7. André Lucas & Julia Schaumburg & Bernd Schwaab, 2019. "Bank Business Models at Zero Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 542-555, July.
    8. Tomohiro Ando & Jushan Bai, 2016. "Panel Data Models with Grouped Factor Structure Under Unknown Group Membership," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 163-191, January.
    9. Evan M. Munro & Serena Ng, 2020. "Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Expectations," NBER Working Papers 27182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    11. Rungporn Roengpitya & Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Alan Villegas, 2017. "Bank business models: popularity and performance," BIS Working Papers 682, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Xun Lu & Liangjun Su, 2017. "Determining the number of groups in latent panel structures with an application to income and democracy," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), pages 729-760, November.
    13. Lucas, André & Zhang, Xin, 2016. "Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 293-302.
    14. Manganelli, Simone & Popov, Alexander, 2015. "Financial development, sectoral reallocation, and volatility: International evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 323-337.
    15. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    16. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
    17. J. A. Hartigan & M. A. Wong, 1979. "A K‐Means Clustering Algorithm," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108, March.
    18. André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2014. "Conditional Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 271-284, April.
    19. Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2008. "Model-Based Clustering of Multiple Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 78-89, January.
    20. André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2017. "Modeling Financial Sector Joint Tail Risk in the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 171-191, January.
    21. Drew D. Creal & Robert B. Gramacy & Ruey S. Tsay, 2014. "Market-Based Credit Ratings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 430-444, July.
    22. Cavalleri, Maria Chiara & Eliet, Alice & McAdam, Peter & Petroulakis, Filippos & Soares, Ana & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2019. "Concentration, market power and dynamism in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2253, European Central Bank.
    23. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Schwaab, Bernd, 2018. "Bank to sovereign risk spillovers across borders: Evidence from the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 247-262.
    24. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    25. Anne Opschoor & Pawel Janus & André Lucas & Dick Van Dijk, 2018. "New HEAVY Models for Fat-Tailed Realized Covariances and Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 643-657, October.
    26. Leopoldo Catania, 2021. "Dynamic Adaptive Mixture Models with an Application to Volatility and Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 531-564.
    27. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    28. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, August.
    29. repec:ecb:ecbdps:20198 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Lin Chang-Ching & Ng Serena, 2012. "Estimation of Panel Data Models with Parameter Heterogeneity when Group Membership is Unknown," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, August.
    31. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    32. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
    33. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2017. "Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 458-478, May.
    34. Fan J. & Li R., 2001. "Variable Selection via Nonconcave Penalized Likelihood and its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1348-1360, December.
    35. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
    36. Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015. "Classical time varying factor-augmented vector auto-regressive models—estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(3), pages 493-533, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Igor Custodio João & Andre Lucas & Julia Schaumburg, 2021. "Clustering Dynamics and Persistence for Financial Multivariate Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-040/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Zhang, Haozhe, 2022. "Equity clusters through the lens of realized semicorrelations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Okui, Ryo & Wang, Wendun, 2021. "Heterogeneous structural breaks in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 447-473.
    2. Mehrabani, Ali, 2023. "Estimation and identification of latent group structures in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1464-1482.
    3. Miao, Ke & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Wendun, 2020. "Panel threshold regressions with latent group structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 451-481.
    4. Saptorshee Kanto Chakraborty & Massimiliano Mazzanti, 2021. "Revisiting the literature on the dynamic Environmental Kuznets Curves using a latent structure approach," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 923-941, October.
    5. Ando, Tomohiro & Bai, Jushan, 2021. "Large-scale generalized linear longitudinal data models with grouped patterns of unobserved heterogeneity," MPRA Paper 111431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wang, Wuyi & Su, Liangjun, 2021. "Identifying latent group structures in nonlinear panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 272-295.
    7. Catania, Leopoldo & Grassi, Stefano, 2022. "Forecasting cryptocurrency volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 878-894.
    8. Blasques, Francisco & van Brummelen, Janneke & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2022. "Maximum likelihood estimation for score-driven models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 325-346.
    9. Yu Hao & Hiroyuki Kasahara, 2022. "Testing the Number of Components in Finite Mixture Normal Regression Model with Panel Data," Papers 2210.02824, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    10. Liu, Ruiqi & Shang, Zuofeng & Zhang, Yonghui & Zhou, Qiankun, 2020. "Identification and estimation in panel models with overspecified number of groups," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(2), pages 574-590.
    11. Jorge A. Rivero, 2023. "Unobserved Grouped Heteroskedasticity and Fixed Effects," Papers 2310.14068, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    12. Joao, Igor Custodio & Lucas, André & Schaumburg, Julia & Schwaab, Bernd, 2023. "Dynamic nonparametric clustering of multivariate panel data," Working Paper Series 2780, European Central Bank.
    13. Wang, Yiren & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Su, Liangjun, 2024. "Panel data models with time-varying latent group structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    14. Guðmundsson, Guðmundur Stefán & Brownlees, Christian, 2021. "Detecting groups in large vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 2-26.
    15. Nibbering, D. & Paap, R., 2019. "Panel Forecasting with Asymmetric Grouping," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI-2019-30, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Yiren Wang & Liangjun Su & Yichong Zhang, 2022. "Low-rank Panel Quantile Regression: Estimation and Inference," Papers 2210.11062, arXiv.org.
    17. Anisa Caja & Frédéric Planchet, 2014. "Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    18. Huang, Wenxin & Jin, Sainan & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Su, Liangjun, 2021. "Nonstationary panel models with latent group structures and cross-section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 198-222.
    19. Eric A. Beutner & Yicong Lin & Andre Lucas, 2023. "Consistency, distributional convergence, and optimality of score-driven filters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-051/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Denis Chetverikov & Elena Manresa, 2022. "Spectral and post-spectral estimators for grouped panel data models," Papers 2212.13324, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank business models; dynamic clustering; Hidden Markov Model; panel data; score-driven dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.