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Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

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  • Siliverstovs, Boriss
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Thiessen, Ulrich

Abstract

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.

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  • Siliverstovs, Boriss & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Thiessen, Ulrich, 2011. "Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 244-260, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:244-260
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    Cited by:

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    2. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    3. Mollick, André Varella, 2012. "Income inequality in the U.S.: The Kuznets hypothesis revisited," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 127-144.
    4. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112421, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    6. Alfred Garloff & Carsten Pohl & Norbert Schanne, 2013. "Do small labor market entry cohorts reduce unemployment?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(15), pages 379-406.
    7. Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Christian H Ebeke, 2016. "The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity," IMF Working Papers 2016/238, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Geng, Yong & Liu, Wei & Wu, Yuzhao, 2021. "How do zombie firms affect China’s industrial upgrading?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 79-94.
    9. Makoto Hirono, 2021. "Demographic change, human capital accumulation, and sectoral employment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 165-185, March.
    10. Lewandowski, Piotr & Keister, Roma & Hardy, Wojciech & Górka, Szymon, 2020. "Ageing of routine jobs in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    11. Yingzhu Yang & Rong Zheng & Lexiang Zhao, 2021. "Population Aging, Health Investment and Economic Growth: Based on a Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Zhou, Yang & Wang, Heng & Qiu, Huanguang, 2023. "Population aging reduces carbon emissions: Evidence from China's latest three censuses," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    13. Cylus, Jonathan & Al Tayara, Lynn, 2021. "Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    14. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Karol Michnevic, 2017. "Contribution of increased life expectancy to economic growth: evidence from CEE countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 82-99, November.
    15. Pohl, Carsten, 2013. "Demografie, Erwerbsbeteiligung und Erwerbslosigkeit in Nordrhein-Westfalen : Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen 1996 und 2011," IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nordrhein-Westfalen 201301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Liudmila Reshetnikova & Natalia Boldyreva & Maria Perevalova & Svetlana Kalayda & Zhanna Pisarenko, 2021. "Conditions for the Growth of the “Silver Economy” in the Context of Sustainable Development Goals: Peculiarities of Russia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, August.
    17. N Renuga Nagarajan & Mineko Wada & Mei Lan Fang & Andrew Sixsmith, 2019. "Defining organizational contributions to sustaining an ageing workforce: a bibliometric review," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 337-361, September.

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