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Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model

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  • AXEL BÖRSCH‐SUPAN
  • ALEXANDER LUDWIG
  • JOACHIM WINTER

Abstract

Population ageing and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi‐country overlapping‐generations model with detailed long‐term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from rapidly ageing regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial, but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed‐economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

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  • Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:73:y:2006:i:292:p:625-658
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00526.x
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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